THE NEW TECTONICS OF GLOBAL GEOECONOMICS

The global economy continues to navigate a complex landscape marked by shifting geoeconomic power, a multiplication of localized proxy conflicts, disrupted supply chains, and heightened technological polarization. From the energy transition needs and the urgency of environmental sustainability to the persistent challenges of economic competition and the increasingly systematic use of economic sanctions, embargos and export controls, corporate leaders need to re-assess dependencies and develop new strategies to drive growth.

THE END OF GLOBALIZATION & GLOBAL REBALANCING

The rise of emerging markets signifies a profound shift in the global economic landscape, challenging traditional power dynamics and creating a multipolar world order characterized by a flurry of “plurilateral” trade agreements (RCEP, CPTPP, RSCI, etc…). Since 2001, G20 emerging markets have doubled their share of world trade and foreign direct investment and now account for one-third of global GDP, becoming major players in manufacturing and resource extraction. With the expansion of BRICS, many of these rapidly growing economies are reshaping the rules of the global economy, leading to new models of trade, investment, and governance, and are reshaping global supply chains according to new geopolitical alignments and security realities.

GLOBAL SOUTH & NEW SUPPLY CHAINS

The Global South is pioneering innovative solutions and building resilience across various sectors as it confronts challenges from climate change to economic volatility. This focus on adaptability, sustainable development, and technological leapfrogging positions the Global South as a new engine of global resilience. But the resources and energy needed to fuel this engine will require revamped, adaptable supply chains. Geoeconomic shifts have already largely reshaped global trade, driving the creation of new supply chain networks. These emerging supply chains will lead to a more diversified and robust global trade system, but in some cases could also exacerbate regional tensions and vulnerabilities in an uncertain world. Corporates need to know how to navigate these rough waters.

ENERGY TRANSITION & TECHNOLOGY CHOICES

The global energy transition is at a pivotal moment, reflecting a growing commitment to decarbonization and a more sustainable energy future. Global energy investment is set to surpass USD 3 trillion in 2024, with USD 2 trillion going towards clean energy. But here too, technological polarization and conflicts over norms and standards will force corporates to build up their strategic foresight capabilities, in order to make the right strategic and operational move at the right time, as well as reconfigure their supply chains.